What Happens If The Real Estate Boom Continues In Toronto?

Mar 4, 2016

The booming market of Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market is on pace for another year of record-breaking sales and double-digit price growth. Let’s look at few numbers:

  • Sales in the first quarter of 2016 rose 15.8 per cent from the opening three months of last year, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.
  • The 10,326 homes sold in March was a 16.2-per-cent increase from the year earlier and accounted for nearly half the 22,575 homes that changed hands in the first quarter.
  • The number of homes listed for sale in the first quarter fell to its lowest level for a first quarter in at least 12 years, according to an analysis by National Bank.

All the numbers suggest a great turn to another great year, but what happens if this continues for another 5 or 10 years? HuffPost Canada has put together projections of house prices, based on the trends seen over the past three years. Here is a sneak peak to the end results; if this keeps up, things are going to be really, really expensive.

Here is what HuffPost Canada gathered. All the results were obtained using two processes; linear growth and percentage forecasting. Each of those took into account the rapid growth by using data collected from the last 3-5 years.

  • A single-family home in Toronto will run between $2.26 million and $3.582 million by 2026.
  • Thinking about upgrading from a condo to a house? Think again. In Toronto today, upgrading from an average condo to an average house costs $758,000. By 2026, it will cost between $1.68 million and $2.95 million, based on our projections.

One reason for the rapid growth identified is the competition among buyers for fewer homes often resulting in bidding wars that drive prices higher. A classic example of demand and supply within our economy.

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